By 2030, India and China will not only have the bulk of cancer cases globally, but are also likely to be ill-prepared to deal with the cancer burden as ageing of the population and the consequent increase in cancer cases would be happening much more rapidly than it did in the developing world.
For instance, while it took 115 years for the proportion of population over 65 years in a developed country like France to double from 7% (1865) to 14% (1980), in China, the proportion of elderly is expected to triple from 8% in 2006 to 24% by 2050, within just 44 years. And in India, the proportion of elderly is expected to go up from about 7% in 2001 to about 13% by 2030, a doubling within just 29 years.
The risk of cancer increases substantially with ageing, but in the case of the developed world, the ageing of their populations was a gradual process affording them time to adjust to the reality of a larger number of elderly to care for and time to put treatment and care mechanisms for cancer in place. Japan too doubled its proportion of population aged 65 and above in just 26 years and saw an increase in cancer burden, as most of Asia will in the next 25 years.
This issue of a rapidly ageing Asia ill-prepared to deal with the cancer burden has been highlighted in a recent report, the State of Oncology 2013, brought out by the International Prevention Research Institute. The report highlights not only the plight of cancer patients in Asia, but also of those in Africa, where a majority of cancer patients would have no access to diagnosis, treatment or palliative care.
The global cancer burden doubled in the last 25 years and is set to double again by 2030, said the report, adding that the dominant contribution to the global burden will be from India, China and Nigeria in the next 50 years as these countries will account for one-third of the world population by 2050.The problem will be acute in these countries where the populations are ageing rapidly, will live longer with rising life expectancy and will have developed Western life styles conducive to increasing the risk of cancer, warned the report.
While the incidence of cancer is rising, there are more patients alive within five years of diagnosis, which has financial implications too since it is in this five-year period that patients would need active treatment and intense follow up, pointed out the report, adding that this would be a huge pressure on health services.
It is bad to have cancer, but worse to have it if you are poor, pointed out the report elaborating how despite continuing improvements in cancer prevention, early detection and treatment, there was wide variation in the availability and quality of care around the world and within countries. According to the report, while two out of every five people diagnosed with cancer in resource-rich countries will die prematurely, in resource-poor countries nine out of ten people will die prematurely as most cases would be coming in too late for treatment and they would be too poor to afford the treatment.
source: https://goo.gl/laHHgt - Times of India
