Oct 10, 2005 07:18 PM
9894 Views
(Updated Oct 25, 2005 10:40 AM)
I apologise for posting this article here but I could not locate a ''right category'' to put it under. Please note that this article has nothing to do with RAW.
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2 days down, 30,000 confirmed casualties, 17,000 of them in PoK, Towns and cities in Pok wiped out. These are very important pieces of information.
With due respect to human life, about which much has been said and with aid on its way, I will try and focus here on the one issue which is going to make Indian and Pakistani politicians have a very serious relook at what it means for the geo-political scenario.
The Current Scenario
The quake struck at the heaviest militarized zone in this world- 5km from the LoC between Indian and Pakistani administered Kashmir. Its impact was felt in the entire PoK, North-West Frontier Province (Pak) and the border towns in Indian Kashmir. The worst affected were citizens of Pakistan occupied Kashmir- The infrastructure has entirely collapsed and 20,000 under 18 children have been killed. A generation has been lost. A few Indian cities also suffered heavy casualties but not numerically comparable to what happened in Pakistan.
It’s Impact
Not forgetting the massive loss of lives of innocent civil residents of PoK, the quake has arguably been responsible for the collapse of almost the entire terrorist infrastructure in PoK, loss of huge number of militant forces comparable only to the magnitude of a war, destruction of paths and passages to Indian administered Kashmir, broken bridges and roads which, for a long time in foreseeable future will hold back sufficient amount of supplies (food and arms) to reach any remnant militant camps in PoK.
Add to this, the government of Pakistan which claims to morally (and discreetly financially) support Jehaadi militants will be forced to shift focus from terrorist activities to humanitarian efforts. President Musharraf, has publicly declared that Pakistan can’t handle a calamity of this proportion on its own and needs substantial financial, medical and infrastructure aid from all over the world. He has even said that Pakistan’s military doesn’t have enough helicopters to reach isolated areas and has requested the world to help him with choppers to access mountainous regions. This has exposed a significant hollowness in Pakistani’s defense system which tends to throw it’s might signals by launching new missiles every year. The truth has been told- Missiles are fine but what about airpower, inventory management and humanitarian backup for its countrymen when there is a war crisis?! Pakistani citizens are agitated at the insufficient relief efforts and now know that if they are ever faced with a war against India, they might have to bear consequences of this magnitude and Pakistani military is just not equipped to deal with such a scenario. It’s a very important reason for Pakistani citizens to tone down rhetoric and think thrice before talking war with India.
A very interesting aspect to this natural calamity is the large scale infrastructure development programs that will initiate in PoK. For local citizens, it means employment generation at a huge scale. Having lost entire towns and cities, the number of people required to take part in reconstruction will be in massive numbers. Financial aid for this purpose is already beginning to pour in to Pakistan from US and Europe. With more people involved in civil jobs, they are less likely to remain unemployed and in turn they will have less reason to join military jehad operations for money. Also, many people having lost one relative or more, will prefer to stay closer to their families than think of joining a never-seems-to-be-benefiting war in time of such a calamity. It may be debated that not more than 50% of Jehadi militants consider terrorism as just a source of employment, but even out of those 50%, if 80% consider infrastructure development as an employment option where they earn the same amount of money or more with no risk to their lives, then there is a 40% shortage of workforce in Terrorism. Inc. It would then resemble the BPO industry in India which fails to motivate educated professionals due to low quality work leading to very high attrition rates.
What India is doing right
I like Mr. Manmohan Singh. He is a smart man. He made 2 very intelligent phone calls on the day of the quake. He first called the Pakistani President and offered unlimited help. Then he called the Indian army in Kashmir and ordered them to heighten security forces at PoK so as to avoid any infiltration under chaos. He has thus stifled the Pakistani military and created a stalemate situation for militants virtually halting their movements to a few kilometers. They will be killed if they try to enter India and the quake has blocked their access to rest of Pakistan. They don’t have arm supplies and they don’t have food. They have been broken they will soon be burnt.
Some rough estimates suggest it will take a minimum of 5 years for PoK to limp back to normalcy and recreate civilization in some areas. For Pakistan, it means higher investments in rehabilitating these areas. For India, it means lower defense expenditure with a low risk of war considering Pakistan’s current priorities. Considering India’s current annual defense expenditure is a significant proportion of its GDP, that money may well be utilized in infrastructure projects across India and boost the economy. The Indian government will also have to use the carrot and stick approach while dealing with Pakistan when it talks Kashmir. Unarguably, converting the LoC to International border is the only sensible situation and nature has just expressed it in her own way. The way forward is for both governments to initiate talks towards this compromise.
Judgment Day
God (or nature) has played the balancing act here- destabilizing the armed militants of Pakistan and snatching away a burning issue from Indian politicians which they conveniently chew and exploit in times of national elections to win ballot. It’s been 58 years and it’s time to settle a dispute. Someone up there has said it discreetly to us, how many of us have heard!....Let’s wait and watch.
