Mar 16, 2002 05:54 PM
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(Updated Mar 28, 2005 05:12 PM)
Peter Drucker has once again come out with an excellent book that is not only thought provoking and informative but also gives one plenty of food for thought as well as action. It's not just a collection of thoughts, but is full of facts, ideas, hypotheses and theories that are pragmatic.
Drucker's logical style of marshalling the facts, presenting them in a coherent manner, systematic and in-depth analysis makes reading his books quite an experience. In this book, which is primarily on Management per-se, Drucker works on a vast canvass of socio-economic, socio-political, and technological factors that have and are causing enormous implications and changes. The basic assumptions about reality are the paradigms of a social science like Management.
Drucker proves how and why these are no longer valid and leads that paradigm has shifted. Very convincing indeed. New paradigm is defined, explained, and ways and means of addressing the new paradigm are discussed in detail. He gives a number of examples detailing the revolutionary changes that have come about.
In a period of rapid changes and uncertainties, how does one go about preparing for tomorrow's realities? Drucker come out with trends that act as pointers to the direction where we are heading. Most interesting of the pointer is on demographic trends and analysis thereof
As against a minimum average birth rate of 2.1needed to reproduce a population, birth rate in developed world has fallen drastically, Italy is 0.80, Japan 1.3, and US below 2. What does it mean? Population of Southern Europe by end of 21st century will be 22 million from present 60 million, Japan's 125 million will become 55. In US, the entire growth after 2015 will be in people above 55, by 2025; the US will have sharply declining work force (20-60 age group
Not just the numbers, but demographic profile too will change, Kids below 25 will just be less than 20%, people above 55 will be 35-40%. The implications are: Massive immigration is inescapable, which will change socio-political scene as well as social fabric of nations.
Strong and stable governments will be an exception; coalitions will be the rule. Multi-ethnic and pluralistic societies will be the norm. Retirees wont fade away, they will still be working though not as employees. Post retirement group incomes will be high. Strategies will have to be tailored to these changed demographics.
Wealth and income distribution patterns will change, thus dictating the shares of disposable incomes. Shares of disposable incomes spent on 'economic satisfaction' will shift to non-economic spend on Governments, Education, Health care and leisure. As against 3000 hours/annum working hours in early 1900's, Germans today work 1500 hours and Americans 1850. Property, thus the power will shift. Affluent middle-class with extended life span and working life, investing through mutual funds and pension funds will own majority of floating stock, thus dictating the definition of corporate performance
These factors together with global competitiveness, global standards of productivity, will call for tremendous changes. To be able to survive, one cannot manage change, but one has to be ahead of it. Rather than reacting to change, one has to initiate and lead the change everywhere including in our personal lives. All these factors will make compelling demands on IT, which has to change its emphasis on T in IT, to the I in IT.
The last chapter on managing oneself, though sounds out of sync in this book, is the most interesting and useful for each of us. Here, Drucker goes into Why's and How's of changing and managing oneself while preparing oneself to meet the challenges of tomorrow. It's a great book, a disturbing one.
Every few pages, the reader is hit with a startling fact or an idea that makes one exclaim, '' I never knew that!', ' I never thought of it!', ' why didn't it ever occur to me?' etc. The book forces the reader to wake up and start thinking.
I hope some of readers who are allergic to lengthy pieces will bear with me for there is no way to summarise the book without losing the flavor of it. I would love to have your comments.
