'India Shinning'. That is the new buzzword. It would be no exaggeration to say, that it is the new'national' slogan of the country. Even the layman on the street now seems to interperse his conversation with'India Shinning'.
Though the slogan has caught up with everyone, it is being viewed by many as an'election gimmick'. Many feel that this perception about'India Shinning' is all a hype or better described by a teenager(who now has voting rights) as all gas!
Yet at the same time, not all feel that'India Shinning' has no meat in it. There is a wide cross section of people who feel that the Indian economy is indeed at its peak, doing extremely well. They put down the pessimists who eye this slogan with a lot of cynicism, saying that they have a habit of always saying that the glass is half empty, eyeing everything with suspicion.
Well, the argument between the'half empty' and half full' can go on and on but there is no denying the fact that India - politically and economically - is making news. Maybe the political parties have made an attempt to put rosy glasses on the eyes of the nation, yet one should give credit where it is due.
Undeniably, India has made rapid economic progress. Infact, keeping in line with the Central Statistical Organisation's gross domestic product(GDP) estimate of 10.8% for 2004-05, the finance ministry projected a conservative 8.1 per cent growth in economy for 2003-04, more than double of 4.0 per cent in 2002-03. The review said higher growth would be achieved on the back of a robust agriculture growth. The icing on the cake is that India's forex reserves increased by US dollar 319 million to cross record levels of USD 1.10 billion for the week ended March 26, 2004.
All this sounds great. Yet, at the same time, it is pertinent to note that work needs to be done to bring down a central government's fiscal deficit, running at around 4.8 per cent of GDP(at the state level it is 10% of the GDP). This means that despite all this economic progress, the Govt itself is yet to get a grip on its spending, the imbalance between Govt spending and revenue is still high.
Having said this, one has also got to admit that the life of the average Indian has indeed improved or should we say, the quality of life for the Indian has improved. Yes, the squallor of the slums in Asia's largest hutment colony still exists but even for them, life has improved from what it was 10 years back. To say that they now live a completely'made over' life would be lying though if the same pace of ecnomic growth continues, maybe 10 years later, Dharavi too would be shinning.
Agreed that 28% of India's population continues to live in abject poverty and suicides by farmers continues to haunt, yet, the face of rural India has also undergone a change. Today electricity has reached more villages than 10 years back, railway links have improved, roads have also made a path in villages, reach of banks in villages has improved and even telephones have a strong presence in Indian villages now. Its not that all problems have just vanished overnight, the troubles continue to exist but compared to 5-7 years back, the troubles have been smoothened to some extent. There is a long way to go but atleast the path is now clearly visible.
Those on the bandwagon of'India Shinning', argue that India has made tremendous progress in the sector of telecom. Mobile phones have indeed changed the lives of the average Indian. 5 years back, owning a mobile phone was considered to be a luxury afforded only the likes of Tata's and Ambani's. That has changed now. Right from the well-to-do industrialist to the teenager in the college and the vegetable and milk vendor on the street, all tote a mobile phone now. Currently there are more than 3.3 million mobile phone users in India.
Another development directly affecting the common man is now the ease with which one now buys a car. Thanks to the falling interest rates, a middle class Indian can now buy a Maruti 800 by paying as less as Rs.3000 per month as the first downpayment. Was this possible 5 years back? Today, name any international car maker and it is now available in India. Infact the biggest sales of the most expensive super deluxe cars happen in the villages of Punjab, the farmers being the biggest buyers there. From 1999-2003, the passenger car segment grew by 41 per cent, the two-wheelers market by 48 per cent, and the mobile phone subscription rate zoomed by a whopping 1, 163 per cent.
Apart from cars and mobile phones, there has also been a surge in the buying of white goods, not just in urban but also in rural India. Colour TV is a necessity and one can spot these blinking colourful screens even in roadside shanties. Shopping malls are cropping up all over and more are coming up. This indicates there is a demand and people buy more freely that what they did earlier.
Falling interest rates have been one of the major reasons for this increase in the purchasing power. Interest rates have never been so low and thus there is more disposable income in the hands of the buyers. The major finding is that India's purchasing power has almost doubled between 1999 and 2003, going up from Rs 7, 635 billion in 1999 to Rs 14, 862 billion in 2003. But, as was to be expected, the luxury segment grew by 45 per cent in the four-year period, compared to the basic segment, which grew only by 9 per cent.
Undoubtedly, there has been a change in the way people live and spend now. Yet, there are many facets of India and Indians which has not improved which prompts you to think that all is well not really all that well.
A few months ago the UNDP released its human development report wherein India's ranking slipped from 124 to 127(among 175 countries), with the likes of Namibia, Botswana and Morocco, not to speak of Sri Lanka and the Maldives. 23.3 million people in India went hungry, forty million children failed to attend primary school. Gaps in literacy between low social classes and the rest of the population remain extremely high, particularly in Rajasthan, UP, Bihar and Karnataka. And in case of unemployment, 84 lakh jobs were lost last fiscal.
It is argued that it only the middle-class urban, young entrepreneurs and salaried professionals believe in this'India Shinning' concept. No doubts, outsourcing, communications, hospitality and pharma — have created, in just a decade, a vast new generation of competitive professionals with disposable incomes.
Real reform, by way of serious cost-cutting in government expenditure and privatisation, has not happened in a big way. India may have made rapid strides in the field of infotech and telecom but it is still predominantly an agrarian country where fortunes still depend on vagaries of monsoon. Politicians, farmers and industrialists, all look up to the sky once June starts approaching. We may have made rapid economic progress but we still pray to the Rain Gods to bless us year after year.
At the end of this, one can say that there is a fire burning which has given a glow to India but this glow, to turn into a shine will take some time. Maybe'India Shinning' is just an election slogan but what is real is that there is indeed a feel good factor and it does seem that, despite all the problems, there is still hope.
