The Final Verdict
Both Pakistan and India are almost evenly matched head to head innuclear and missile fronts, however India has strategic andtechnological superiority over the conventional forces of Pakistan.Indian Navy is larger in fleet and personnel size with a more variedrange of ships including an aircraft carrier while Pakistan’s Navy issmaller and has no aircraft carriers. Indian’s IAF is equipped withhighly capable fighters like 4.5th generation Su-30s and 4th gen Mirage2000s which are technologically superior to Pakistan PAF’s F-16s andMirage IIIs. Additionally Indian pilots are better trained and morecapable in air combat than Pakistani forces as was demonstrated by itsvarious wars with Pakistan or joint exercises with US and UK. In thearea of conventional ground forces both the Indian as well as PakistaniArmy is well equipped and highly trained to survive in extremities oftopography and climate in combat conditions, like wars in the highHimalayas.
If a purely conventional war were to take place between both thesecountries, India would most likely overpower Pakistan owing to itssuperior military technology and infrastructure, larger manpower, moreterritorial area and a strategic advantage in its sea and air forces.It must also be noted that a war between these two countries willmatter more than India’s conventional superiority as both these nationsare nuclear powers on an equal deadlock. India has maintained a ‘nofirst use’ nuclear policy on the lines of a similar policy by Chinawhile Pakistan does not have any such policy, considering their onlyhope against India is in nuclear deterrence. It would be risky forIndia at the present scenario to go into any aggressive war againstPakistan as the repercussions would be serious a nuclear devastationfor both countries.
Comment:
India's numerical and technical superiority in a conventional waris beyond question - therefore Pakistan's low nuclear threshold andmaintenance of the first-use option.
However, in a surgical kind of strike being talked about in Indianand Pakistani circles, over Muridke or Muzaffarabad , cruise missilesare likely to be used. The Pakistani and Indian capability is evenlymatched in these except for India's supersonic cruise missile with aspeed of Mach 2.6 which is an obvious advantage in this kind of astrike, but it only has a range of 290 kms - enough to reach Muridke iflaunched from East Punjab but not much more. Pakistan's answer is theBabur cruise missile with a range of 700 km and a speed of Mach 0.7 -sub-sonic but pretty fast.
UAV's was the other Indian advantage which has recently been matched by Pakistan.
With the evenly matched air, missile and nuclear capability, asurgical strike doesn't seem to be the best option. If India is to win,it will have to be a full-scale conventional war with both sidesavoiding breaching the other's nuclear threshold.
Is that possible
Therefore, I do not think there will be an India-Pakistan military confrontation.
