The day began with the news of an explosion of a tank wagon in which twelve coaches of a oil tank wagon went up in flames. The remoteness of the location side tracked the news but for thousands of passengers, it was a nightmare reaching their destination. Security agencies hinted at sabotage but there's still no definitive cause to the explosion.
A little later news came in of the release of an abducted engineer of a road construction company. He was taken hostage exactly a month ago in Lower Assam's Kokrajhar district found his way back probably after a negotiated payment made to a militant outfit which was engaged in talks with the government till last year. Abduction is so routine in these parts that the news received only a mere mention.
Later in the day two militant leaders were produced at the court for another term in custody. This court scene too is rather routine for anyone to take notice.
It was one of the most high profile arrests in years. ULFA's Foreign and Finance Secys on their way to the court. But where did they emerge from? They were in neighbouring Bangladesh for years.. so what made the Bangladesh Govt. suddenly wake up and round them up? Further the same Govt. which has been avoiding giving up another ULFA leader Anup Chetia actually hands over these two leaders without any fuss. How and why did this happen?
Sasha Choudhury the arrested self-styled Foreign Secy is the only ULFA member trained in diplomacy and someone who has intervened at the UN. His colleague Chitraban Hazarika also under arrest is a Central Committee member and equipped to participate in talks. That is, if talks happen direct talks with the Indian Govt. would mean the top man Paresh Baruah coming overground but that’s unlikely anytime soon. So the parleys can begin with these two along with other leaders already in jail.
But why would the two top men, Paresh Baruah and Arabinda Rajkhowa remain elusive? If there's a division in leadership regarding talks, then it's advantage government of India.
But going by its past records ULFA would possibly use talks as a firewall to move out of Bangladesh and seek new haven in China and re-establish old bases in Myanmar. Its old Bhutan ally NDFB is active once again and seeking Arunachal route to Myanmar. That strengthens the case.
Just how important are the arrests to ULFA's foreign and finance secretaries ? To the larger journalistic community it may not have any relevance because Sasha Choudhury and Chitraban Hazarika are names that do not ring a bell. But the impact of these arrests may be bigger than many of those that make to our headlines.
A diploma in civil engineering Sasha Choudhury, educated himself in diplomacy in Philippines and represented ULFA at international foras including the UN. He is probably the only English speaking ULFA leader. Infact he even interrupts his interrogators to correct their language. His collegue Chitraban Hazarika the finance secretary is a commerce graduate. ULFA otherwise has very few educated cadres and leaders and thats why its important to mention this detail. The arrival of these two leaders may just be a part of the ULFA design.
On 6th November the same sceptical media went to town with this arrest but the interest did not sustain. That's again because most of the people who study conflict or report on conflict or analyse the same wasn't very sure of how important these two persons are in the 'larger picture'. In fact ULFA doesn’t even appear in the larger picture any longer.
ULFA is probably looking at two things. First they would like to cash on public pressure for talks, secondly they want the image of ULFA to be refreshed in the mind of Assam as the return of the prodigal son. There could not be a more convenient time for a virtual safe passage. Its 109 Battalion has nothing more than forty cadres controlling the Assam -Meghalaya-Bangladesh corridor. Its strongest force 709 Battalion in Lower Assam has about a hundred cadres. Majority of them are mercenaries. Its strike force the 28th battalion came overground last year. And a majority of its leaders are ageing and are in jail. Will our Government take the bait and encourage talks? ULFA is one outfit in the North East which has never effected a split. Paresh Baruah has ensured that the chain of command doesn't break.
Before each election, the government has record of slowing down its operations against the outfit in some sort of a symbiotic exchange. The outfit each time makes sure they regroup to strike back.The ULFA needs a breather again and if reports of it’s Chinese liaison is even remotely true then Assam should brace itself for another round of protracted conflict.
